Hurricane Joaquin is at category 4 with winds at 130 mph. The eye is extremely well defined here as the storm pounds the central Bahamas.
Motion is still southwest after what appeared to be a northwest jog. In fact the storm is so intense that it is moving in a circular pattern.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Afternoon model runs of the model track guidance. You can see how the cluster of models are all offshore and some are well offshore. Only a few are still showing any landfall. We are getting pretty confident that this is indeed going to be the case. The late afternoon GFS continues the trend and is even further to the east
Joestradamus breaks down all the major models including the European in his afternoon discussion. The European model has led the way to the eastward shift.
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