European Model Leads Hurricane Joaquin Offshore Bahamas to Bermuda

The afternoon European model has not budged one inch in the last 5 runs as the track on it is further east. The GFS model has trended well to the east by several hundred miles. There a few outliers that continue to show landfall in the Untied States including the Canadian model and a few others. Here are the major models side by side for 8am Monday morning.

gem96 gfs96 hwrf96

We have here the Canadian, GFS, and the HWRF model which is a hurricane based model. Now below is the European model and the GFDL which is another hurricane based model.

euro96 gfdl

Of course the obvious question is why do I think the western based models are wrong and that the European model is going to be correct. Firstly at this point if the European were going to flip westward it would have. Secondly there are a number of other models that I haven’t posted and they are all trending east. While I won’t won’t completely shut the door on this, it does seem that the European was the first to pick up on the trend that the hurricane would not rotate around the deep trough in the southeast.


You can see on the upper air European for Monday morning how the hurricane that is out in the ocean maintains a separate identity from the southeast trough. That trough instead acts as a kicker to move the hurricane along to the northeast. It never captures the hurricane. By kicking it along it is basically taking a Bahamas to Bermuda path.

With regards to the weather here, assuming that the out to sea track is correct, there will still be the threat for gales and coastal flooding at least through Saturday and possibly into Sunday. As for rain which is not related to the hurricane but to the old stalled cold front there will be some rain around tonight and perhaps a more organized rain later Friday into Saturday morning but then that rain are will move southward. Sunday could very well turn out to be a nice day if dry air from the north pushes far enough south.

With the hurricane out in the ocean into Tuesday ocean conditions will be very rough with 10 foot plus waves crashing into shorelines. 5 days of northeast winds could mean coastal flooding problems for the Long Island and New Jersey coastlines lasts through Tuesday. Again I want to keep the door open but I am leaning toward the out to sea solution.

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