Hermine Strengthening No Changes In Forecast
Hermine Strengthening No Changes In Forecast
Overnight Hermine has continued to move to the east and is now right along 70 west. A NOAA plane is in the storm this morning and it appears that Hermine may be starting to strengthen a little bit. This would create hurricane force winds in some areas well offshore. Hermine should begin to turn north and northwest shortly however the fact the Hermine is as far east as it is now suggests that my forecast on expectations overnight remains in good shape. The priority will be coastal flooding. Wind will only be an impact along the immediate coast, and rain is not going to be much of an impact at all.
..HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 70.0W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Duck to west of Watch Hill * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 70.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, the cyclone is forecast to intensify to hurricane force late tonight and on Monday. Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday, and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds...1 to 2 feet Hampton Roads area...1 to 2 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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