Hermine Impact New Jersey

Hermine Impact New Jersey

Hermine Impact New Jersey

Coastal Areas Impacted

Inland Much Less

Satellite loops clearly show post tropical storm Hermine off the east. The satellite signature is indicative of a non tropical cyclone. It has a cold core look to it. That said it is a formidable storm with winds to hurricane force. The difference is that there are no core thunderstorms near the center. The strongest winds are located 100 miles or more from the circulation center rather than concentrated near the center of circulation. With all that said the impacts will be very much like a strong winter time noreaster. The good news is that barring a last minute shift there is not going to be a landfall. However the bad news is Hermine is trapped under a strong upper air vortex that has captured the cyclone and it has no where to move. There is nothing in the upper flow to kick it along in the normal west to east flow. Therefore where the center winds up is important. The closer to the coast it is, the greater chance you have of getting into the wind and rain. On the other hand the further northwest you are the less you will see.

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Watch the radars on Sunday as the rain will more than likely be backing in from the east and not from the south or southwest. The way it looks at the moment the biggest issue will be coastal flooding. Where that center is at the time of high tide will determine the extent of any tidal surge. Sunday evening high tides and Monday mid morning high tides are the two critical tide cycles to pay attention to.

 

storm free

storm free
storm free

storm free

Hermine Impact In New Jersey

HERMINE IMPACT WEST OF THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY

For New Jersey if you are west of the Garden State Parkway impacts will be much less in terms of wind and rain. Northwest areas of New Jersey may not see much at all.  Some rain and some gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary.

HERMINE IMPACT EAST OF THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY

Along the New Jersey shore is where you are more than likely to see a period of gale force winds and some rain. I don’t think rain is a huge issue here. The biggest issue will be coastal flooding

WINDS: NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE

COASTAL FLOODING: TIDES 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE FROM SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY

Look for the rain to back in from off the ocean late Sunday afternoon or evening and continue into Monday morning before slowly diminishing. High tide are Sunday evening and again mid morning Monday.

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Right now based on the latest model runs I am painting what I believe to be the worst case scenario. We will update this outlook during the day Sunday and Sunday night. All of this will be dependent on the track of Hermine and how strong it is at the time it makes its nearest approach to the coast Sunday night into Monday. Again I want to emphasize that coastal flooding is the biggest issue.

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