Hermine What To Expect
Hermine What To Expect
Coastal Areas Impacted
Inland Much Less
Satellite loops clearly show post tropical storm Hermine off the east. The satellite signature is indicative of a non tropical cyclone. It has a cold core look to it. That said it is a formidable storm with winds to hurricane force. The difference is that there are no core thunderstorms near the center. The strongest winds are located 100 miles or more from the circulation center rather than concentrated near the center of circulation. With all that said the impacts will be very much like a strong winter time noreaster. The good news is that barring a last minute shift there is not going to be a landfall. However the bad news is Hermine is trapped under a strong upper air vortex that has captured the cyclone and it has no where to move. There is nothing in the upper flow to kick it along in the normal west to east flow. Therefore where the center winds up is important. The closer to the coast it is, the greater chance you have of getting into the wind and rain. On the other hand the further northwest you are the less you will see.
Watch the radars on Sunday as the rain will more than likely be backing in from the east and not from the south or southwest. The way it looks at the moment the biggest issue will be coastal flooding. Where that center is at the time of high tide will determine the extent of any tidal surge. Sunday evening high tides and Monday mid morning high tides are the two critical tide cycles to pay attention to.
Hermine Impact In New Jersey
HERMINE IMPACT WEST OF THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY
For New Jersey if you are west of the Garden State Parkway impacts will be much less in terms of wind and rain. Northwest areas of New Jersey may not see much at all. Some rain and some gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary.
HERMINE IMPACT EAST OF THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY
Along the New Jersey shore is where you are more than likely to see a period of gale force winds and some rain. I don’t think rain is a huge issue here. The biggest issue will be coastal flooding
WINDS: NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE
COASTAL FLOODING: TIDES 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE FROM SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY
Look for the rain to back in from off the ocean late Sunday afternoon or evening and continue into Monday morning before slowly diminishing. High tide are Sunday evening and again mid morning Monday.
HERMINE IMPACT LONG ISLAND
Rains will begin in the afternoon over Eastern Long Island first and than back westward lasting into Monday morning before diminishing. Winds are likely to pick up to gale force and continue into Monday afternoon. The strongest winds will be over Eastern Long Island and along the south shore.
WINDS EAST GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
TIDES RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF FIRE ISLAND TO NEW YORK HARBOR, 5 TO 7 FEET IN LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON TO THE BRONX AND 3 TO 5 FEET EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE EAST WITH LESS TO THE WEST
HERMINE IMPACT NEW YORK CITY SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
For this area we begin to look at the idea of how far west and north do the wind and rain get. I would say that rainfall amounts would be much less; certainly under an inch and in many cases under a half inch. Winds will get gusty for awhile. Rain and wind will develop in the evening and last into Monday morning
WINDS: 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH
TIDES RUNNING 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BRONX AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN NEW YORK HARBOR WITH SOME HIGHER SURGES POSSIBLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF STATEN ISLAND
HERMINE IMPACT COASTAL CONNECTICUT
Here Coastal Connecticut will be on the northern edge of what Long Island gets so it is a tough call. As you go north and west of I-95 impacts will diminish rather quickly. Along the immediate coast rain will develop from east to west during the mid to late afternoon and last into Monday morning. Long Island Sound tides will be the biggest issue
WINDS: EAST BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN INCH OR LESS
TIDES 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF BRIDGEPORT AND 5 FEET OR HIGHER WEST OF BRIDGEPORT
Right now based on the latest model runs I am painting what I believe to be the worst case scenario. We will update this outlook during the day Sunday and Sunday night. All of this will be dependent on the track of Hermine and how strong it is at the time it makes its nearest approach to the coast Sunday night into Monday. Again I want to emphasize that coastal flooding is the biggest issue.
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