Hermine Close To Hurricane Strength
Hermine Close To Hurricane Strength Top Winds 70 Mph
Tropical Storm Warnings From Virginia to Rhode Island
Biggest Threat for Long Island New Jersey is Tidal Surge
While we continue to struggle with how this is all going to ultimately play out I want to remind everyone fo a few things.
THIS IS PRIMARLY A COASTAL EVENT
GREAT THREAT IS COASTAL FLOODING
GALES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
RAIN WILL NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
This is the order of priortiy as it stands at the moment. The satellite loop shows the signature of a very powerful non tropical cyclone as it moves northeast over the open waters. The strongest winds have shifted to 100 miles or more north and northeast of the circulation center. While Hermine remains in this post tropical state, it changes the profile of tidal surge issues. For now the focus will be on the high tides Sunday night into Monday morning.
With regards to the tidal surge, with this system being non tropical in nature, it shifts the area of highest tides further north along the New Jersey shore.
The fact that we have a non tropical cyclone at the moment means that the flooding profile will be more like a noreaster The two graphics above show the tidal surge from Hermine during the late Sunday evening high tides and the mid Monday morning high tides. This model is based on the Ensemble GFS. The hurricane center track is close to the GFS idea and note that it strengthens Hermine to post tropical hurricane strength.
It is very important that all shore areas under the tropical storm warning to prepare for moderate to severe coastal flooding over 4 or 5 high tide cycles. Track will mean everything.
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 73.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 73.3 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed is expected by Sunday, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next copule of days. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Hermine is expected to intensify to hurricane force on Sunday. Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44014, located about 75 miles (120 km) east of Virginia Beach, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph (108 km/h). The Norfolk International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday, and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut.
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