heatwave

Heatwave Breaks Soaking Rain Iffy Weekend

Heatwave Breaks Soaking Rain Iffy Weekend

 

Heatwave Breaks Soaking Rain Iffy Weekend

We have 2 more hot days to deal with as this heatwave runs its course. It will break on Friday. How it breaks will be key because we have a shot for some widespread rain in what will be a rather unusual set up. You usually don’t get waves that go by to our south this time of year. However there is going to be a decent set up for an onshore flow of moisture and low pressure coming out of the Tennessee Valley and passing just offshore. These kind of systems this time of year can be big rain producers. The drought pattern would suggest otherwise but some models are bullish on the idea of a 1 to 2 inch general rainfall for most of the area beginning late Thursday night and ending late in the day Friday or Friday evening.

HEATWAVE BREAKS GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST THURSDAY

heatwave

The upper air flow shows disturbances moving along in the flow. Under the right circumstances you can do pretty well with rainfall from these things as the upper support lifts up and squeezes all the tropical air out of the atmosphere. However I would caution that given the overall drought pattern, every drop of rain seems to be a battle.

HEATWAVE BREAKS GFS SURFACE FRIDAY MORNING

heatwave

HEATWAVE BREAKS GFS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON

GFS78

Already the GFS seems to be backing off a little from prior runs showing a less deep surface low moving by with less rainfall being produced. The NAM is more bullish on rainfall but it has a way overdeveloped surface low to our south Friday afternoon. This seems unrealistic.

HEATWAVE BREAKS NAM MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON

heatwave

The other issue is what happens after this goes by. The European model has a second low coming in with a soaking rain for later Saturday night and Sunday while keeping Saturday dry. The GFS is weaker and would have a more optimistic view for the weekend. I’ve decided that for now to mention the chance for showers on both weekend days but favoring Saturday to be more dry than not. Right now the weekend is in question. Needless to say that after Thursday the 90s are done for awhile. Friday could be a struggle getting into the 80s depending on cloud cover, rain and wind. Saturday should be in the 80s and then the same question holds for Sunday depending on clouds and rain.

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