Heatwave Soaking Rain Possibility
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Heatwave Soaking Rain Possibility
Looking at weather conditions today we see dry air holding on with some weak moisture passing by across areas of Southern Pennsylania and Southern New Jersey in the form of some clouds. No showers are forecast for the next 2 days (unless we get a pop up or two later Thursday away from the coast). As far as the heatwave goes it is getting more difficult to track. For Newark and most stations in New Jersey the heatwave enters day 7 today. For New York City and southern areas of the Hudson Valley the heatwave ended yesterday with those areas only getting to the upper 80s. For Long Island Suffolk County and South Nassay had their heatwave end on Monday only to start over again today. But the wind off the ocean will keep things under 90 again in most places. For Connecticut it is day 5, 6, 7, or 1 depending on where you are. Honestly from the standpoint of heatwaves to me this was and is a big yawn. No temperatures hitting 100 (Newark got to 99 somehow on Monday) and nothing close to a streak record anywhere.
Temperatures today will hit the 90s across New Jersey and the Hudson Valley for the most part though low 90s looks like the max..80s along the coast. Thursday will probably be a repeat performance with sunshine and clouds mixed.
Now the question for Friday is in regards to whether we get a soaking rain or not. All models are bullish on a 2 to 4 inch rainfall across much of Central New Jersey to New York City and Long Island though much less or very little for the Hudson Valley and as you go north and west. The NAM European and Canadian are the most bullish.
The GFS model has even less as it tracks everything further south. It would keep the heaviest rain from Southern New Jersey southward.
The strength of the drought leads me to be very cautious on the idea of a 12 hour soaking rain. We really need it badly especially in areas north, northwest, and northeast of the coastline. But we have seen time and again how these weather systems tend to underperform and produce much less than advertised. It is hard to go against that idea. MORE WEATHER MODEL ANALYSIS LATEST VIDEO on my you tube channel.
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