Heat Humidity Pop Up Thunderstorm Today Thursday
Watching For Tropical Cyclone Development Carolinas
After a day where clouds played a role regarding temperatures we are back into the heat and humidity today. While there are some patchy low clouds around they will give way to sunshine rather quickly in most places and that takes us up to the upper 80s to some lower 90s for highs this afternoon. The question for pop up thunderstorms is on the table for late today into tonight.
it would appear that the severe weather risk will be to the north across Upstate NY from the Catskills to the mid Hudson Valley northeast into Central and Northern New England today but we should watch for the possibility of an isolated strong thunderstorm developing. We will be radar dependent for this and it will again have to do with how much daytime heating takes hold. However unlike Monday any shortwave in the upper atmosphere passes further north.
We will do a wash rinse repeat scenario for Thursday which will be another very warm to hot day with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 with some sunshine and the chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm. Then our attention turns to our south as low pressure now near the South Carolina coast will attempt to move offshore.
The satellite picture and loops this morning show developing thunderstorms off the South Carolina coast but the actual surface low at the moment lies well to the west of where the convection is. We are going to see the low move just offshore later this morning and hover near the coast into Thursday. The question is will this system have an opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves northward.
Whether it becomes a tropical cyclone is probably more of a technical distinction rather than one that will impact the outcome here. It does appear that this low will move northward and it will be, at least for awhile, over warm South Atlantic ocean water where water temperatures are in the lower 80s. Upper air conditions will be somewhat favorable for development but the proximity to land is an issue.
We have most of the weather models clustered around about a 75 mile radius of possible tracks. We do seem to have a coast hugging low here. The NAM model straddles the coastline northward with an area of rain that move up from the south on Friday.
This looks to be a 6 to 8 hour wall of rain that moves through and along and west and north of the low center there could be a few inches of rain produced. Recent thunderstorm activity has reduced the dry conditions in an uneven way and this should take care of the rest if it verifies.
The bottom line for Friday will be rain developing from south to north with a breezy conditions developing near the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s as clouds hold temperatures down as well as the rain once it gets underway. It all moves out Friday night and weather conditions improve over the weekend with some sunshine. However I would expect some scattered thunderstorms around Saturday and perhaps on Sunday as well. Highs will be in the mid 80s to around or just over 90 degrees. Next week starts with a cold front late Monday and a rather solid chance for showers and thunderstorms and I would even speculate on a severe weather event for Monday given a strong upper trough moving through the Northeast.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.