harvey

Harvey Catastrophic Rains Continue

Harvey Catastrophic Rains Continue

 

Harvey Catastrophic Rains Continue

harvey harvey rains

Harvey Catastrophic Rains Continue to ravage Southeast Texas. The general Houston area is under water many feet deep. 2 feet of rain has fallen so far and there is more on the way. The satellite loop shows the circulation of Harvey remains pinned down in Southeast Texas not far from Victoria where it has been sitting since yesterday afternoon. Part of the circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico creating tremendous lift of warm tropical air from the southeast. Tornadoes have been touching down as well. This is not done yet, not by a long shot.

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…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING
GREATER HOUSTON…
…DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A
SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…29.0N 97.4W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of Texas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port O’Connor to Sargent Texas

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is occurring in
southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect
for portions of this area. Please see warnings and other products
issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional
information on this life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.4 West. Harvey is
moving toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a
slow southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move
very near the coast of southeastern Texas.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily over water to the east and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the middle and
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches in this region.
These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect
for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE
AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and other products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for additional information on
this dire and life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther
west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through
southwest and central Louisiana.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to High Island including Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the
center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along
the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in
areas of onshore flow within the warning area during the next day
or so.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near
the middle and upper Texas coast into southwest Louisiana.

harvey

This may take a better part of a week to play out. Many of the hurricane tracking models as well as some of the other global and short term models bring Harvey slowly southeastward with some bringing it back out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This opens up serious complications including wind increasing should Harvey gain some strength again (though doubtful to hurricane strength) if enough of the circulation emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless the rains continue where we could see these amounts double across Southeast Texas in the coming days. This is an epic historical event for Southeast Texas and a hurricane that will go down in the record books.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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