TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASING CHANCE SE COAST
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASING CHANCE SE COAST TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE POSTED THIS EVENING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
Satellite loops this afternoon show that the disturbed weather off the southeast coast southwest into Florida is becoming better organized. There is suggestion of a weak circulation off the coast east of Jacksonville Florida both of the satellite and the radar loop below. Notice the echos are turning counterclockwise which is a sign of a low pressure closed circulation developing. Tropical Storm Watch may be required this evening for the coast from the Carolinas northward to Virginia late this afternoon or tonight.
Virtually all of the weather models develop this system and they all seem to at least suggest that this will be either tropical or subtropical in nature over time. The initial structure may be more non tropical in nature given that part of this coming out of an old frontal boundary. However upper air conditions are going to be favorable as well as the warm water of the gulf stream right underneath should be conducive for this is system to gradually become tropical in nature. Regardless we are dealing with low pressure off the Southeast US and a strong high in New England. This will create a tight pressure gradient and a large area of gales.
As far as we are concerned the outlook remains the same. The upper air is not favorable for this to move straight up the coast but rather it will move northeast from the Carolinas and remain offshore. However I do expect rain to reach as far north as Southern New Jersey for a short time on Wednesday. Also the coastal waters will experience strong winds offshore and this will create rough beach conditions for the middle part of this coming week.
Meanwhile it should be noted that some models including the European move Tropical Storm Harvey back out into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 2 days. This could create some other complications and it certainly could add to the catastrophic rains that have already fallen. The European model this afternoon is the most aggressive on this idea as it takes the center of Harvey offshore and actually strengthens it some before a second landfall near or northeast of Galveston. We will be monitoring these developments closely. Here are the latest radars and rainfall amounts for Harvey.
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