Flash Flood Watch New Jersey SE Pennsylvania
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Flash Flood Watch New Jersey SE Pennsylvania
We have a Flash Flood Watch New Jersey SE Pennsylvania that continues for tonight and Friday. Overnight weather models continue to push the idea of a widespread heavy rainfall with the heaviest rain falling mainly along and south of Route 78 in New Jersey & Pennsylvania to about Route 195. I’m going to nudge that line a little further north to Route 80. I’m thinking there should be a generous soaking of a couple of inches of rain with some local amounts to 3 to 4 inches. I also think Long Island stands a shot of doing well with this if the warm front lines up right with the low tracking just to the south.
The map above is the NAM 4KM rainfall forecast for Friday. Anything in white is at least 2 inches with anything in light blue at least an inch. Purples are 3 to 4 inches and higher. Dynamics suggest lots of potential here. So really its how it sets up on the radars at the end. We should point out that the European model and the NAM 12 KM model are further north with the axis of heavy rain and have been all along. The recent run of the GFS model has shifted the heaviest rains northward into Northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley. So again some variability here in terms of model forecast with a northern trend on the global models fairly evident.
The table is being set today. It is very warm and very humid and this will be the last day of 90 degree temperatures for awhile. Radars are quiet this morning but some pop up downpours could develop later this afternoon and evening in a few places. The steadier rain doesn’t come in until later tonight.
Flash Flood Watch New Jersey SE Pennsylvania
Friday Outlook.
Rain will move in from southwest to northeast after midnight tonight and then taper off and end from west to east during Friday afternoon. The heaviest rains should fall between 5am and 11am in most areas. The duration of the event is important as this will allow the rain to soak in. If we get the forecast amounts or even half the forecast amounts it will at least put a dent in the rainfall deficits in Northern New Jersey, Hudson Valley, Long Island and Connecticut. Latest Weather Model Video Analysis on You Tube.
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