FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY
The National Weather Service has posted FLASH FLOOD WATCH for New Jersey along and south of Route 78 beginning Thursday evening and continuing until Friday evening.
Right now and into Thursday evening there are no weather issues. Thursday will be the last day of 90 degree temperatures as the heatwave continues to wind down. Thursday night we will start to see rain move in from the west as low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley and heads for the New Jersey coast.The satellite loop shows the disturbance in the western Great Lakes and tropical moisture beginning to build across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY SATELLITE & RADAR LOOPS
Weather models late this afternoon are beginning to line up better with the GFS model coming into better alignment with the more bullish NAM models. The question is where does the radar set up with the heavy rain. This is the kind of setup where somebody could get slammed pretty hard with 3 inch plus rainfalls.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY LATEST MODEL FORECASTS
One of the NAM models lines up with the European weather model which wants to show the band of heaviest rains of 1 to 3 inches across Northern New Jersey and into the Hudson Valley while the others are further south. The very tight gridded NAM 4KM model which usually works well with thunderstorms goes nuts with rainfall amounts of 4 to 5 inches in some places that were placed under the Flash Flood Watch. The outcome that is most beneficial is the track of the rainfall to the north. Northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley are suffering under drought conditions. We will of course reevaluate the situation overnight and on Thursday. Again no rain is forecast until Thursday night when the low moves toward the coast.
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