European Weather Model On Tropical Storm Hermine
European Weather Model On Tropical Storm Hermine
Today’s European weather model run was pretty much in line with all the global models with some slight twist to it as we move into next. However rather than focus on that possibility, I think the take away from all of this is that all the models including the European weather model and led by the NAM have caved to the west. This means the threat for tropical storm conditions exists from the Middle Atlantic states to Southern New England beginning Saturday in southern areas and then reaching NYC Saturday night and Southern New England later Saturday night. There are of course lots of questions here that need to be worked out.
European Weather Model Saturday 8am
European Weather Model Sunday 8am
The European weather model takes the more coastal track of all the models showing Tropical Storm Hermine just southeast of Atlantic City Sunday morning. The forecast gets very tricky after that because of the big ridge in Eastern Canada. Hermine will only be able to get so far north when it will hit that block. That will cause it to drift east and then southeast. The European gets very imaginative with this by taking it southwest to near the Carolina Coast over the course of 3 days and has it as a hurricane off the Virginia coast later next week!
European Weather Model Thursday September 8th
Now given the squirrelliness of the European weather model lately this solution is a little unusual. If this were to happen it would create serious tidal flooding concerns for the coast. However we won’t worry about this unless a track like this becomes something realistic.
Even the latest hurricane model spaghetti models area coming up with all sorts of solutions regarding Hermine. Track will ultimately determine strength since I do believe this will be at tropical storm strength and not hurricane strength when it reaches our latitude.
FOR THE LATEST ON THE GFS MODEL HERE IS MY JOESTRADAMUS POST
JOESTRADAMUS ALSO HAS THE LATEST ON THE NAM MODEL EARLIER TODAY
HERE IS MY WEATHER VIDEO FROM THIS MORNING.
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