tropical storm hermine

Tropical Storm Hermine Threat Labor Day Weekend

Tropical Storm Hermine Threat Labor Day Weekend

Tropical Storm Hermine Threat Labor Day Weekend

Hurricane Watches Florida Coastal Bend

Threat to East Coast Increases

Based on the satellite loops the tropical depression has developed a well defined circulation and has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for a portion of the Florida Coastal bend and a hurricane watch remains in effect for much of that area as well.

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.0 West.  Hermine
appears to be drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion is expected later today, and a turn
toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will
approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

storm free

The question now for the east coast is becoming a little more clear as weather models seem to be converging on a more westerly track up the coast just inland. This means that the system could maintain a degree of tropical storm strength as it moves north northeastward. The shift west is because the tropical system has taken longer to move northward and thereby missing the trough that will be moving over the northeast. That trough would have pushed this out to the south. Instead the trough passes by and the bottom part of it cuts off from the main jet stream and lifts the tropical storm northward to our latitude. This is based on the latest GFS model and Nam model. Also other global models are on board.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE UPPER AIR SATURDAY 2PM

gfs90 tropical storm hermine

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SURFACE SATURDAY 2PM

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

If this is correct weather conditions will being to deteriorate Saturday afternoon and evening with rain moving in for Saturday night and Sunday. We will have more on this later today.  Let me say this and make it clear. THIS IS NOT ANOTHER SANDY. It would appear that the main threat for this would be heavy rain and it might be a drought breaking rain for some areas which will be a good thing. Details will be fine tuned.

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