european weather model

European Weather Model Adds To Puzzle

European Weather Model Adds To Puzzle

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European Weather Model Adds To Puzzle

Today we are going to focus on the European weather model and its view on the situation for early next week. There are 3 pieces to this puzzle that are important.

  1. The Greenland Block
  2. The Pacific Ridge
  3. The Depth of the East Coast Trough

With regards to the Greenland block that is in place. For those of you who don’t know about the Greenland Block; when the atmosphere is in normal mode everything moves from west to east. The Greenland Block is the presence of an upper air high pressure system in (you guessed it) Greenland! This disrupts the normal west to east flow and displaces the jet stream far to the south of average for the time of year. During the months from late fall to mid spring, the block creates colder than average conditions across the northeast US and deflects the storm track to the south.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL SHOWS GREENLAND BLOCK FRIDAY MORNING

european weather model

Today’s European weather model illustrates the blocking signature very well. The high over Greenland displaces the cold air and jet stream south of normal in the Eastern US. Meanwhile out in the west we see the beginning of a ridge building in the west. This entire look has been nonexistent all winter along and has suddenly appeared now in March.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL UPPER AIR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CLICK TO ANIMATE

european weather model

Animate the GIF above and you can see what happens as the ridge builds up in the west forcing a trough in the east to dive down and intensify as it swings around. This is the signature of possible storm development along the east coast and the European does exactly this as it takes a low from the Gulf of Mexico and moves it off the Florida coast and up the East Coast. The position of the trough in the east and the block to the north keeps cold air locked in from Maine to Virginia.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL SURFACE AND UPPER AIR

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

european weather model

The GFS weather model is pretty much the same though some of the specifics are slightly different but the bottom line is that the models at the moment are on the same page. The keys going forward will be the strength of the block. If the block is too strong any development will be suppressed to the south and east. The ridge in the west needs to be very strong and build all the way up into Western Canada. A weaker ridge would also mean a flatter surface feature that moves out way south. Finally the strength of the trough that dives into the Ohio Valley and that is going to be a function of the other two factors. It is a very delicate balance that needs to be achieved in order for a storm to develop and move up the East Coast. We will be watching future model runs to see where this all takes us.

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