European Model Major Storm But Some Differences
The overnight European model run is a little different from the GFS and the Canadian model runs in that it is further south and more progressive than the other 2 models. If this is correct it would literally still mean snow for Southern New England and the coast to New York City however the heaviest snows would fall from New Jersey southwestward to Virginia.
European Model Major Storm Saturday 7pm
European Model Major Storm Sunday 7pm
Its a matter of a hundred plus miles but it is a huge difference because the model does not lift up the southern stream feature in the jetstream like the other models do. This has huge implications for how far north the heaviest snows get. The European still produces a band of 6 to 12 inches for Southern New England to New York City with the northern fringe of that in the middle Hudson Valley south of Albany. However the larger 1 foot plus snows would be from New Jersey southwestward into Virginia. That the storm does not lift up more northward like the others is a very large difference in the models. Given the Europeans general outperformance caution is advised for forecasts for areas from New York City northward.
European Model Major Storm Total Snowfall Forecast
THIS IS WHY I AM NOT PUTTING OUT A SNOW MAP FORECAST UNTIL THIS ISSUE IS ULTIMATELY RESOLVED.
You can see on the European snowfall map where the axis of the 1 foot snows in gray are. Any further southward shift will cut off the northern fringe of the snow even further.
Now in the end it is one run. It still produces a significant snowfall for Southern New England and New York City. And even though the European usually outperforms it doesn’t always. In the last case the model was the last to show the strong primary low in the Great Lakes from the storm late last week. We will of course continue to wait and see how this all plays out later today. Wednesday may be the day when we can finally put this to bed one way or the other.
EUROPEAN VIDEO ANALYSIS
GFS VIDEO ANALYSIS
LATEST GFS MODEL ANALYSIS DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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