WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS
MY BIGGEST CONCERN HERE IS NOT RAIN BUT THAT THE GFS MODEL IS TOO FAR NORTH AND THAT THIS SYSTEM WINDS UP SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WE VIEW OTHER MODELS OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. THE OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN RUN WAS FURTHER SOUTH AND RAISES CAUTION FLAGS FOR AREAS FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND EAST. JUST HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE HEAVY SNOW GET
Tonight’s GFS model run continues the trend of all the models for the last 5 days. There has been very little variation from run to run for the most part. This model begins to zero in on what appears to be a major winter storm beginning Friday in the Middle Atlantic states and then proceeding northeastward to nEW Jersey, New York City Southeast NY Southern New England and Long Island by Friday evening and then further east from there. This appears to be a long duration event with snow gradually coming to an end Saturday night and Sunday morning from southwest to northeast.
This model run keeps it all snow for New York City, Long Island, much of New Jersey except for the immediate coast and southeast. Even for areas that have mixing or rain issues for awhile they will probably change back to snow at some point later Saturday and make up the difference to a large degree.
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS GFS SATURDAY 1AM
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS GFS SATURDAY 7AM
There are still going to be model disagreements over the exact placement of the surface low. I have maintained all through this that the GFS model has been incorrectly too far northwest with its surface low and tonight’s run seems to have made a bit of a correction as it adjusts the placement further south and east which is closer to the Europeans view. I think the European from today probably has the best idea in terms of the surface low placement. One of the things that models in these instances have a tough time with is the magnitude of the cold air. I believe that except for coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties southward, and perhaps parts of Eastern Long Island, this will be primarily an all snow event. The model follows along on this idea. If cold air is more important what will happen in those areas is once the wind begins to turn more north northeast over time, those areas will change back to snow and possibly make up the difference in what they lose in terms of rainfall or sleet.
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS GFS SATURDAY 1pm
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS GFS SATURDAY 7PM SATURDAY
Notice that the surface low intensifies rapidly and the model concentrates bursts of heavy snow in Southeastern Pennsylvania as well s some bursts in Southern New England. The concentration of the heaviest snow is along the path of the upper air storm which moves over Southeast Pennsylvania and passes offshore south of New York City. All of this spells heavy snow for this large area. Now in terms of specifics I would caution all to be careful when looking at the snow map for 2 reasons.
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
First off the map here assumes a 10:1 ration. I tend to believe ratio may be higher for areas north and west of New York City Southern New England and Long Island once the surface low begins its move to the east and colder air comes in on the back side. Right now this is just a guess on my part. I think the take away, rather than focus on the specific print numbers is to assume that the model is forecasting the potential for 1 foot plus snows in the areas shaded in purple. This would cover a large area from Virginia all the way to Southern New Hampshire and everyone in between.
There is still much uncertainty here obviously as we are still 4 days away from the first flakes falling. However the fact that all the models continue to remain steadfast in their forecasts means that confidence in all this is increasing.
WINTER STORM THREAT GROWS COASTAL FLOODING & BEACH EROSION
Regardless of what happens snow fall wise, there is the threat here for some serious coastal flooding and beach erosion Saturday and Saturday night. 2 high tide cycles combined with a full moon will cause significant coastal flooding issues for the coast line from Southern New England down to Delaware which of course includes Long Island and the Jersey Shore. Combine this with gales from the northeast and you have the ingredients for tidal flooding up and down the coast this weekend.
GFS MODEL VIDEO ANALYSIS
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