joestradamus on the journey

Joestradamus On The Journey

Joestradamus On The Journey

With everything that is going on and all the excitement over the prospects for snow I want to settle everyone down for a few seconds. I want to tell you what to expect from me. At this point most of you have figured out how I approach things. Some people don’t understand this. Some people don’t read my posts. Some people spend there time waiting for an opportunity to post stupid shit like the person yesterday who insulted me left and right. I never could find out why. I forecast a coating to an inch of snow. We got a coating to an inch of snow. Apparently this was a problem and he said things that were completely unacceptable to me. Thanks to those who defended me I appreciate it. I did something I have only done twice and that was to block and ban. Seriously if you are on this page just to break my chops thats fine. I totally accept that and am perfectly okay with it. But if you are on here to wait for that chance to say stupid shit, then this page is not for you. There are weather pages out there that are far better than mine. I will gladly suggest a few. JOESTRADAMUS loves being passive aggressive!

Okay so at this point you know that I am basically setting the stage with my posts. Im going through models and showing you what they are showing and what they mean for us. I think a lot of you have gotten that. The videos i think have given everyone a good idea of just how complex meteorology is and how difficult forecasting can be. That said this is my plan that I follow most of the time especially in big events.

OVERNIGHT: VIDEO ANALYSIS OF NEW GFS RUN

TUESDAY: MORE ANALYSIS, SHORT TERM FORECASTS

SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING I WILL DO A EUROPEAN VIDEO ANALYSIS OF THE OVERNIGHT RUN

TUESDAY NIGHT: GFS VIDEO ANALYSIS

WEDNESDAY MORNING: EUROPEAN VIDEO ANALYSYS

WEDNESDAY MORNING: WILL POST FIRST CALL SNOW FORECASTS

With regards to your questions about track, mixing, rain, snow amounts, snow potential etc etc. right now anything I say would be just a guess. All these issues are with us with every storm. Right now I would tend to favor that mixing issues will be minimal except along the immediate shores..Long Island immediate coast and coastal New Jersey. This may or may not make a difference in the end depending on track. I am favoring the European model over the others.

Snowfall forecast maps are model projections based on the runs and they change with every run. Here is the latest one from the GFS. To me these things are fun but frankly they rarely verify outside 72 hours. This will change at least 5 or 6 more times before it settles on something and even then it may not be right. You have to view these things with extreme caution.

joestradamus on the journey

Right now I think the best we can say is that based on what is in front of us, someone is going to see a big snowfall from the Middle Atlantic northeast through Southern New England.  How this all finally shapes up is going to be a Thursday Friday forecast problem and not a Monday Tuesday forecast problem.

So folks..enjoy the journey. I try and get to everyone’s questions and comments and I can’t always get there. So please accept my apologies ahead of time. I do not zip code forecast so please don’t ask. And I do post maps so if you are using a weather page, you need to know where you are on a map. I just can’t give out 11,000 forecasts for each of you especially if I’m in storm mode.

Have fun with this. For you snow lovers, this is your chance. Hopefully for you it doesn’t go bust!

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