Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

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Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

Very Wet With Several Systems

Strong Blocking Pattern


The Euro Model hasn’t exactly been hitting balls out of the park lately. In fact in terms of the broad scale pattern at least when it comes our area, the GFS has done a little better. Still I don’t want to ignore it because given the blocking pattern that is over the North Atlantic right now, its solution for the next 10 days merits some watching. Yesterday’s day run of the Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week!!!

Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week Euro Model Monday Upper Air


euro120 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

There are 3 weather systems on the European that are in play. First is the late Sunday Monday weather system which looks like the one for Thursday night into Friday. Unlike the first one, the big vortex pulls out and allows for a more vigorous system to move through here with rain later Sunday into Monday. The track of the surface low would be to our south which means damp and dreary conditions beginning on Sunday and lasting through Monday.

Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week Euro Model Monday Surface

gfs120 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

It is roughly the same idea with low pressure heading out of the Ohio Valley and redeveloping to our south. Rainfall amounts on this one on the European range from about 3/4 inch to an inch and a half with more as you go south. Later Monday into early Tuesday we catch a break for a whole day and then the next weather system lines up.

Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week Euro Thursday Upper Air

euro192 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

This one for Thursday on the European is very strong. We have the vortex reforming and dropping a strong upper air storm southward into the Ohio Valley. The result is a series of lows along the east coast that could be big rain producers. The first surge comes later Tuesday into Wednesday before the main upper low drops in and creates another storm system off the east coast for late in the week

Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

Euro Model Thursday Surface

euro240 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

Now remember this is one model’s solution and one that has not been acting well lately. Rainfall amounts for the entire week would be in the 2 to 3 inch range or more in some places. It would mean that virtually the entire week would be spent in gloom and doom clouds. It certainly would fit the mold of a springtime blocking scenario. Also bear in mind that the GFS paints a much more benign look to the second half of next week. However the new overnight GFS model is actually deeper and faster with the Sunday/Monday system and has rain here by Sunday morning.

GFS Model Sunday Surface Map

gfs84 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

With regards to the set up for later in the week the GFS model is similar to the Euro model except that it is not nearly as deep or as far south with the trough the sets up for Thursday-Saturday

GFS MODEL UPPER AIR THURSDAY

gfs180 Euro Model Paints Ugly Picture Next Week

Which ever model has the more correct solution, it is something to watch for next week as both models show lots of energy coming into the east. We will try to piece this puzzle together later today.

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