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Dreary Day Warm Front South Passover Easter Weekend Outlook
Marginal Risk Severe Weather Friday & Friday Night Most of New Jersey & Pennsylvania
Low pressure coming out of the Southern Plains coupled with a very strong upper air trough swinging into the East continues on course. The severe weather risk today shifts east into the Central Gulf States and then shifts further east for Friday into Saturday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk from the Northern Middle Atlantic States southward to Florida which we expected the would do and now the northern fringe of marginal risk for severe weather to Northern New Jersey to about Route 78. There are no issues today regarding severe weather and we actually don’t expect much to happen today other than lots of clouds with a strengthening southerly flow, some patchy light rain or drizzle, and temperatures that will be in the 50s along the coast and into the 60s inland.
There isn’t much happening on the radar this morning other than some patchy light rain. Much of the steadier rain is in patches moving across New England. The warm front to the south likes across Southern New Jersey and will start to move northward later today.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
While the northern half of New Jersey and Northeast Pennsylvania as well as Southern New England, the Hudson Valley and Long Island stay in clouds all day, to the south in Southern New Jersey & Southeastern Pennsylvania, some sunshine should break out this afternoon and temperatures here will possibly reach into the 70s.
As far as rain is concerned I’m really not expecting too much on late Friday afternoon or Friday evening with low pressure that will move northward up the Appalachians. The track of the low to the west creates north south bands of rain for later Friday night into Saturday afternoon. If you get into the band you will likely wind up with twice as much as someone who doesn’t. Right now the rainfall forecast amounts have a sense of uniformity to them but I am expecting more variability from east to west.
Much of Friday day side will be cloudy with occasional passing downpour. They will be come more numerous Friday night and the heaviest rain will be late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Also look for winds to pick up from the south today and they will become strong and gusty later Friday into Friday night and early Saturday morning with gusts over 40 mph. Coastal flooding will be an issue at the hgh tides with minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide beginning today and lasting into the Saturday high tides.
This is how it looks like on the weather models and not much has changed since yesterday. Weather conditions should improve somewhat for Easter Sunday though there will still be some clouds around and enough instability to create a few scattered showers. Temperatures will be mostly in the 60s over the weekend. Weather models for next week have taken a bit of a negative turn with weak weather systems and shower risks along the way. We will take a look at the longer range later today.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.