Colder Air Moving In But Still Above Average
Colder Air Moving In But Still Above Average
After today’s round of near record highs in the low 60s we are seeing colder air moving in but that air is colder only relative to the 60s we reached today. We will see temperatures down closer to average on Wednesday but we will still reach the low to middle 40s which is a little bit above the average high which is now down near the 40 degree mark. Skies are clearing out tonight and morning lows will be in the mid 20s in cold spots to low to mid 30s along the coast and in warmer urban locations. No weather issues on Wednesday as we have high pressure building in which means a good deal of sunshine and just a few passing clouds.
Radars will be quiet through much of Wednesday night but then on Thursday we have a cold front approaching with a wave developing on it. The forecast problem is one of timing, speed, and intensification. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the Delaware coast and strengthen into a major storm once it reaches New England.
The issue is that the low does not get going fast enough. Some models through this morning were indicating that the low would start out further south and intensify rather rapidly as it moved from Virginia to just south of Long Island on Thursday. This would trap cold air in further south and it would certainly enhance snow just inland and even make it a tricky proposition for the coast. Later today models seem to back away from this idea and we will see whether this trend continues tonight. In the meantime I am making no changes to my early call forecast which was for mostly rain near the coast and perhaps a few inches further inland.
For parts of upstate Eastern NY and for much of New England this will be a fairly decent snow producer making ski areas very happy for the approaching New Years holiday weekend. Winter Storm Watches are posted for these areas.
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