Cold Front Coastal Low Onshore Flow Factors For Week Ahead Weather
The first thing we have to deal with this week as an approaching cold front today. This has certainly brought in some clouds and we have a gusty south to southwest wind ahead of it particularly along the coast. The satellite picture this morning shows only limited breaks in the cloud cover before the heavier overcast and the showers take over. It may take all day for the showers to reach the coast and then the front weakens tonight. This explains why rainfall amounts forecast are much higher well inland than along the immediate coast. So for most of us from New Jersey to Connecticut not much happens until this afternoon as the rain area begins to shift to the east. For Long Island, Eastern Connecticut and Coastal New Jersey, the rain doesn’t arrive until probably this evening.
We do see quite a bit of action on the regional radar across much of Pennsylvania and upstate New York with the rain moving northeast but the area itself is only crawling eastward. We are at least beginning to pick up some of the rain on the local radars below and this will be slowly increasing as the day wears on.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Today is warm and humid with temperatures in the 70s to near 80 in some places. Showers will be around tonight before the front passes and the showers fall apart. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday starts the process of a building high to the north and an onshore flow with low pressure developing off the Southeast coast and moving slowly northeastward. At least for Tuesday the dry air from the high will dominate more then the moisture from the onshore flow so we will see clouds with some breaks of sun and highs in the 60s.
We are still struggling with how this all plays out with regards to the coastal low. The low will be trapped to the southeast until a storm out to the west in the Plains gets close enough to kick it to the northeast and that may not happen until the weekend. The map above outlines how we see this with regards to rain and wind. Close to the immediate coast we should see some rain wind and coastal flooding possibilities at high tide though the tide cycle this week is low due to the moon phase which is a positive. The further inland you go the less impact from rain and wind..and it could be more clouds than anything else that we will be dealing with all week long. Daytime highs Tuesday through at least Friday will be just in the 60s with nighttime lows in the 50s.
NoticWee that very little of the rain makes it inland. Coastal lows are always tricky when it comes to the western edge of the rain. The National Hurricane Center is still mentioning the chance of this system become subtropical in nature but that will not change the outcome regarding rain and wind. The front to the west from a major early season snowstorm for the Plains will approach on Saturday kicking this low away to the northeast. By the time the front reaches the coast there won’t be much with it other than clouds. Dry chill air lies behind it for Sunday and the start of next week.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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