cold snow

Cold Abates Friday Snow Chance Weekend

Cold Abates Friday Snow Chance Weekend

 

Cold Abates Friday Snow Chance Weekend

cold snow

It feels a little better this afternoon as we have plenty of sunshine along the coast but there are some clouds to the northwest limiting the sun. Radars at least are quiet for the most part. Temperatures this afternoon have gotten above freezing by a few degrees which is certainly welcome. We should be close to or even over 50 this time of year but that isn’t happening until maybe next Monday. But we have a road to travel getting there and that does involve another chance for snow this weekend.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

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Skies will be clear tonight and temperatures once again will head down into the teens and low 20s. Friday we should see plenty of sunshine before clouds come in late in the day. Highs will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s which combined with the strong March sun should begin to eat away at the deep snow cover in areas inland of the coast and melt the snow and ice right along some coastal areas.

GFS SNOW FORECAST MAP FOR THE WEEKEND

cold snow

The forecast issue is the weekend. We will have marginal cold air and a low dropping down from the Great Lakes and reforming off the coast. There are two issues here. First is that this is not like what we just went through in terms of the setup. There is no southern feature here so it will all be in the north. Weather models are all over the place with this. It would seem that along the coast on Saturday we will have some light rain and wet snow that won’t amount to much. Then late in the day as the low develops offshore it starts to throw moisture back westward. Colder air will get involved and this means some wet snow. The second issue is that models are all over the place with this. We have the bullish GFS which would suggest a 4 to 6 inch snowfall is possible to the more benign NAM model which has a few inches in some places with a little more on Long Island, to the Canadian which has a coating to a few inches or so to the European which has basically a coating to a couple of inches. It is hard at this point to accept the bullish GFS model at this point. The NAM has worked and offers a good compromise forecast for the moment.

CANADIAN MODEL SNOW FORECAST

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NAM MODEL SNOW FORECAST

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For now at least based on what we are dealing with, I’m going to just leave things as they are forecast wise. With models showing such a wide disparity in terms of development it makes sense to just leave things alone at the moment. Let’s just say it could be a coating to a few inches for somebody with the best chances across Northern New Jersey, Southern areas of the Hudson Valley..Connecticut south of route 84 down to the coast including Long Island. The risk for Long Island is some additional snow Saturday night with some coastal development but this too is uncertain at this point. For now now changes as we have plenty of time to watch this. My earlier call would look more like the Canadian and European models and less like the NAM and GFS model

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