snow

Snow Forecast Updated For Saturday Into Sunday

Snow Forecast Updated For Saturday Into Sunday

snow

Snow Forecast Updated For Saturday Into Sunday

After looking through all the afternoon weather models I’ve adjusted my snow forecast for the weekend. I want to be clear that my confidence level in this is low at this point. Models are all over the place with this and I decided that for now this is the course of least regret. The NAM model is the go to model at this point.

NAM MODEL 5PM SATURDAY-10AM SUNDAY

snow

There are 2 pieces to this puzzle. The first is the snow and rain that falls Saturday afternoon. I don’t expect that to amount to much given temperatures and the sun angle but by late afternoon the sun angle disappears and then we have precipitation developing around a coastal low. Looking at the NAM and the GFS as well, they develop a solid band of snow that looks to primarily effect coastal areas rather than inland areas. NAM and GFS models show large areas of 4 inches or more falling across Long Island, Southern Connecticut, New York City, Southern areas of the Hudson Valley and Northeastern New Jersey. Models seem to be keying on Long Island with this. Right now I am going lower than what models are indicating. The Canadian has less and the European would suggest 1 to 3 inches with all of this with less precipitation. Until models converge on something, i figured that my forecast was the best compromise at this point. We have plenty of time to adjust. It does not appear to be something that develops into something big and this is nothing like the major storm we just saw on Tuesday. We will revisit this on Friday and let’s see what happens. Let’s hope this is the last one and we can move on to spring.

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storm free

storm free

The maps below are the National Weather Service forecast snow maps with the most likely snowfall prediction.

storm free snow
storm free snow

 

 

storm free snow
storm free snow

 

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