Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

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Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

Latest afternoon model runs continue with the same idea indicated yesterday of a strong upper air “cut off” low developing along the east coast. Weather models actually take a fairly impressive surface system around the base of the cut off and riding it northward up the coast and then northwestward into Long Island by Tuesday. It is becoming hard to ignore this idea. The Euro model is the most aggressive with the surface low development but I would caution that this model lately has done this several times in the last month and in each case it was very much overdone. Nonetheless it seems to me that the possibility of some sort of gale center developing in the ocean and moving northward and then northwestward seems a reasonable possibility. Remember that we will be coming off a full moon and several days of an onshore flow so this could have coastal flooding implications.

Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY

gfs168 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY euro168 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY

Both the Euro Model and the GFS model line up very well. Now this is going to be the second of 2 events. The first will be Saturday into Sunday morning as a lead wave develops and moves away to the northeast. This will bring some rain later Saturday into Sunday morning. The Euro model is a little further south with the first wave.

Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

GFS EURO MODEL SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING

gfs120 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY

euro120 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAYOnce this wave goes by an onshore flow will remain which will keep us rather moist and probably overcast through Monday when the upper air storm swings to the coast and the surface low develops and heads northward.

Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues

GFS EURO MODEL SURFACE TUESDAY MORNING

gfs168 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY euro168 Coastal Storm Threat Next Week Continues GFS EURO MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY

Again the European model at this point looks overdeveloped for Tuesday. I would want to wait several runs to see some confirmation of this as this model shows a very wrapped up gale center here. The weaker surface GFS would still mean gusty winds and some heavy rains moving inland from the ocean.

In the meantime the weather looks dry and under control from midday Wednesday through Friday with just some cloud issues. Stay tuned folks!

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