Coastal Storm Passes East Severe Weather Threat Tuesday More Storm Systems Long Range
At least we managed to squeeze out a nice Sunday ahead of two weather systems, both of which will have minimal impact here. The first is a cold front and clouds from that have moved in. Then we have the low in the Deep South that is producing widespread severe weather and heavy rain from East Texas to North Carolina. That low will be passing south and east of New Jersey and Long Island Monday morning. Clouds certainly will be here into early afternoon and coastal areas from Long Island to the New Jersey shore might get grazed with a little rain from this. Rain may be a bit more extensive from Delaware and Eastern Maryland southward but the main thrust of this storm will be to the east and weather conditions should improve from west to east Monday afternoon. Monday’s temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60.
Regional and local radars are picking up some showers from the approaching cold front. Most of these showers should fall apart before reaching the coast. Later tonight into Monday morning we will see the rain from the developing coastal low burst on the scene but again most of it will be offshore and south.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Let’s move on to Tuesday where we are going to see a strong cold front move rapidly from Western NY and Western Pennsylvania at 8am to well offshore by 8pm. There is a strong upper trough that will be swinging through. On the surface map it creates a very sharp cold front with “V” shaped isobars. The air ahead of the front at the surface is very dry but the air aloft is going to be very moist. This is a set up for low top thunderstorms that can produce hail and under the wrong conditions, very strong gusty winds or what are known as microbursts.
Risk time for thunderstorms will be from 1pm to 6pm from west to east. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather indicated but they also state they may raise the risk profile as we get closer to Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will reach the 60s but behind the front temperatures fall quickly into the 40s.
Weather conditions will improve Wednesday with sunshine and highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s (almost 10 degrees below average). After that as the GFS loop shows, not one but two storm systems that pass to our south will be in play for late this week and for next weekend. This means a prolonged period of cloudy skies, onshore winds, and rain starting Thursday and taking us on and off through next weekend.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.