Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

Marine

Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

This coastal storm is coming at the worst time as it coincides with the full moon which is Saturday. This of course the worst time to have a noreaster with the full moon making tides higher than normal to begin with. Add a noreaster that could produce storm force winds of 50 knots or more and you have the ingredients for serious coastal flooding and beach erosion. The biggest risks appear to be for parts of the New Jersey shore and the western areas of Long Island Sound for both the Long Island and the Westchester  & Connecticut side.

Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

The graphic  above is the storm surge forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center. This model predicts storm surge and it is forecasting a storm surge of 4 to 5 feet along the New Jersey shore and a storm surge of 4 to 5 feet over western portions of Long Island Sound. This could cause some serious tidal flooding at the times of high tide. Coastal flooding is likely. For the south shore of Long Island the surge is shown to be less but still significant to cause coastal flooding especially in those areas that already get routine flooding during a full moon cycle.

With winds forecast of over 50 knots and ocean seas building to 10 feet or more, this will add to the tidal flooding issues.

LONG ISLAND COASTAL WATERS, GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FRIDAY NIGHT, STORM WARNINGS FURTHER OFFSHORE

Fri Night
NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt… Increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft…building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight.
Sat
NE winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft…building to 14 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat Night
NE winds 35 to 45 kt…diminishing to 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft…subsiding to 12 to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow likely. Vsby 1 nm or less…increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun
N winds 25 to 30 kt…diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon…then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the evening… Becoming NW 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft…subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain and snow in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FRIDAY NIGHT, STORM WARNINGS OFFSHORE
Fri Night
NE winds 25 to 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft…building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. A chance of rain and snow in the evening…then rain with snow likely after midnight.
Sat
NE winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft…building to 16 to 21 ft in the afternoon. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Sat Night
NE winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt… Diminishing to 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 14 to 19 ft…subsiding to 12 to 17 ft after midnight. Snow likely. Rain.
Sun
N winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft…subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow likely in the morning

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Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

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Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island

Coastal Flooding Storm Surge New Jersey Long Island