Blizzard Watch Snowfall Forecast
The National Weather Service in New York and Philadelphia (Mount Holly) have much of the area under a BLIZZARD WATCH at the moment from Long Island Southeastward which includes New York City and most of New Jersey. The map below is my new forecast snow map. It is not much different from the first call map. I adjusted the line between 6-12 and 4-6 a little further south to respect the global models from last night however I keep looking at the NAM shifting faster and further north as it is showing on the new run but we will get back to that shortly.
Blizzard Watch Snowfall Forecast
Oddly enough usually my confidence level is higher for the lower amounts than the higher. The placement of the 1 foot plus zone remains unchanged. The tougher part of this forecast is the zone north and east of the 1 foot line where everything is so track dependent. Also the further north you are the tougher it gets because what you get depends on the northward shift.
Blizzard Watch Snowfall Forecast
This is the NAM model at 48 hours for Saturday 7am. Look at how far north the snow is already. If the Nam is right it starts snowing about 6 to 8 hours earlier than the other models and keeps it snowing right through 7am Sunday. This model right now is the extreme solution but it has shown this 3 runs in a row.
In the end I left things pretty much as is. Check the weather service snowfall maps at the links following the videos.
VIDEO OF EUROPEAN OVERNIGHT RUN
VIDEO OF GFS/NAM OVERNIGHT RUN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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