Forecast Major Winter Storm Update
As far as the threat for a major winter storm this weekend this is a good point to review a few things and update the forecast outlook.
FORECAST MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE…WHAT WE KNOW
What we know is that there will be a major winter storm for the Middle Atlantic States and Southern coastal areas of the Northeast beginning later Friday in southern areas from Washington DC Baltimore and Philadelphia, to New York City and Long Island.
There will be coastal flooding and beach erosion issues for the coastline from Delaware northward through Coastal Southern New England.
There will be an area of 1 to 2 foot snows
There will be a sharp cut off of the snow where it goes from a foot of snow to six inches to an inch over a matter of miles
Winds will be gusting past 50 mph along the coast at times and there will be blizzard or blizzard like conditions in some areas.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
We don’t know exactly where the boundries of the 1 foot plus snows will ultimately be. We think the greatest risk is for Long Island, Central New Jersey south of route 78 and points southward.
We don’t exactly where the northern cut off line of the snow will be. Right now we think it will along or somewhere north of route 84 in New York State and Connecticut.
Forecast Major Winter Storm Update Snow Forecast Map
There are no changes in my snowfall forecast map issued this morning
I am well aware that my numbers could be too low in some places and too high in others. I think most of you understand that there could be a major storm with big snows and that it is quite possible that those of you in the 6 to 12 inches area could have numbers raised in southern areas and lowered in northern areas. I will update this map if necessary Thursday morning. The European forecast map above is from this afternoon. Based on the late afternoon GFS run I’m am making no changes. The model actually ticked up snow a little on the late afternoon run but it is in line with my views so I saw no reason to change anything.
NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN
Long Island Snowfall Forecast
NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT GFS
LATEST GFS DISCUSSION REGARDING MAJOR STORM THREAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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