Forecast Major Winter Storm Update

 Forecast Major Winter Storm Update

 

As far as the threat for a major winter storm this weekend this is a good point to review a few things and update the forecast outlook.

FORECAST MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE…WHAT WE KNOW

What we know is that there will be a major winter storm for the Middle Atlantic States and Southern coastal  areas of the Northeast beginning later Friday in southern areas from Washington DC Baltimore and Philadelphia, to New York City and Long Island.

There will be coastal flooding and beach erosion issues for the coastline from Delaware northward through Coastal Southern New England.

There will be an area of 1 to 2 foot snows

There will be a sharp cut off of the snow where it goes from a foot of snow to six inches to an inch over a matter of miles

Winds will be gusting past 50 mph along the coast at times and there will be blizzard or blizzard like conditions in some areas.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

We don’t know exactly where the boundries of the 1 foot plus snows will ultimately be. We think the greatest risk is for Long Island, Central New Jersey south of route 78 and points southward.

We don’t exactly where the northern cut off line of the snow will be. Right now we think it will along or somewhere north of route 84 in New York State and Connecticut.

Forecast Major Winter Storm Update Snow Forecast Map

There are no changes in my snowfall forecast map issued this morning

snowfall forecast Forecast Major Winter Storm Forecast Major Winter Storm

I am well aware that my numbers could be too low in some places and too high in others. I think most of you understand that there could be a major storm with big snows and that it is quite possible that those of you in the 6 to 12 inches area could have numbers raised in southern areas and lowered in northern areas. I will update this map if necessary Thursday morning. The European forecast map above is from this afternoon. Based on the late afternoon GFS run I’m am making no changes. The model actually ticked up snow a little on the late afternoon run but it is in line with my views so I saw no reason to change anything.

gfssnow Forecast Major Winter Storm

 

NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN

Long Island Snowfall Forecast

 NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT GFS

 

LATEST GFS DISCUSSION REGARDING MAJOR STORM THREAT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

 

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Forecast Major Winter Storm

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Forecast Major Winter Storm

Forecast Major Winter Storm




 

 

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