Gfs Model Remains Bullish For Snow
REGARDLESS OF SNOW THIS WILL BE A COASTAL FLOODING BEACH EROSION EVENT WITH A FULL MOON
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT HIGH TIDES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
Tonight’s run of the GFS surprised quite a bit. I had anticipated a southward shift and instead got a northward shift with a surface low further north and more intense. Now we need to be cautious here because we still don’t know what the European is going to do tonight. The weather system has now moved into the Pacific Northwest and this is the first sampling of real data that has gone into the models. Perhaps this is going to effect the models to some degree. Also remember the European has been correct in showing a further south path before it gets here and the GFS is going along with this now. The question is what happens at the coast this weekend. Is the European going to adjust its surface low further northwest as the GFS did and will it do it for multiple runs.
GFS MODEL REMAINS BULLISH FOR SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
GFS MODEL REMAINS BULLISH FOR SNOW SATURDAY EVENING
Above are the surface maps for Saturday morning and Saturday evening. The low is intense off the Delaware coast and moisture is sweeping in from the southeast. I think at this point it is pretty safe to say that for Washington DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia as well as the Southern half of New Jersey that the risk for a one foot plus snow storm is growing ever higher. This model run would bring 1 foot plus total snows to New York City and Northern New Jersey as well as southern areas of Southeastern New York. The issue for Long Island and Southern New England will be due to the way the low is oriented. Warm air may try and come in from the east for awhile however this is a problem for the short range and ultimately may not matter in the end as they will change back even if they lose it for awhile. The same holds true for coastal New Jersey once winds turn more north northeast. Again this is a short range forecast issue that won’t be known until Friday at the earliest.
Is this real? Is it correct? Or is the model over zealous with its coastal low tucked in to the coast and basically vertical with the upper air storm? This is a critical question because storms that become what is called vertically stacked don’t happen too often. By this I mean that the surface storm is basically under the upper air storm. It only happens on rare occasions. Is this correct?
GFS MODEL REMAINS BULLISH FOR SNOW UPPER AIR SATURDAY EVENING
GFS MODEL REMAINS BULLISH FOR SNOW
CANADIAN MODEL VIEW
The Canadian model is even more bullish as it has the storm tilted more northeast southwest which traps cold air along the coast for the most part and keeps things all snow just about everywhere.
The Canadian has the heaviest snows for Philadelphia down to Washington DC all the way to Richmond VA. It then narrows the heavy snow band as it moves across New York City and Southern New England.
Again all eyes fall on the European model run which is due out shortly and we will see if it continues to trend south or will it begin to adjust to the other models. In reality they aren’t that far off. Its just that we are in a setup where 50-100 miles and how the surface low is placed relative to the upper air storm is going to make all the difference in what kind of forecast to come up with going forward. I will be coming out with a first call map in the morning once I digest everything, including breakfast.
NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT GFS
NEW VIDEO ANALYSIS OF OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN MODEL
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