Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover

Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover

We are continuing our series of preview look at the Winter of 2016-2017. One of the things we will be watching will be the growth of Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover growth during the month of October. There are a number of theories out there regarding both issues and their impact on the longer term weather pattern across North America. They impact the development and placements of the arctic vortex and the Greenland ridge or high (should one appear). Nothing guarantees any particular outcome. These are just a couple of more indicators out there that can either make things clear or make things more confusing.

Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover What Does it Mean?

Arctic sea ice has been in the news with story after story of the melting ice last winter and spring. The summer melt was the second lowest on record. However we are seeing a rather rapid recovery since the bottom over the last 30 days or so. The ice cover in the arctic is beginning its annual expansion. An ice free arctic provides an open moisture source for storms which can feed Siberian Snow Cover Growth.

Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover

Siberian snow cover growth has been tied to cold winters in the Eastern US. The problem is that last year it showed a robust rate of growth during the month of October. The theory is that the higher the rate of growth, the better the chance for a colder winter in the Eastern US. The problem was that last years super el nino trumped everything in terms of dominating the weather pattern. The El Nino this year is gone so we can take that influence out of the equation. The development of La Nina in the Pacific has been extremely weak. The La Nina Watch put out by the Climate Prediction Center was cancelled last week given that the La Nina has not developed yet and not likely to develop in time for the winter. The map below shows the extent of Siberian snow cover on November 1st 2015.

SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWTH NOVEMBER 1st 2015

Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover

We are at the beginning of this process obviously. There is very little snow cover in Siberia at the moment so there is nothing worth comparing at this time. However the critical time will be from October 1st to November 1st and we will of course be watching this closely.

Remember that there is no magic bullet here. Arctic Sea Ice Siberian Snow Cover Polar Vortex La Nino El Nino Greenland Block Ocean Temperatures and other factors at play. We will be looking at all of them over the coming weeks. Last Sunday we looked at ocean water temperatures and their impact. In case you missed it here is that story.

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