Another Day of Relative Gloom And Doom
Weekend Storm System Brings Rain Saturday Into Sunday
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Another Day of Relative Gloom And Doom
Weekend Storm System Brings Rain Saturday Into Sunday
When the upper air pattern is set up for it to be warm in the Eastern US in the winter time it means that dry air masses don’t really make it here and that leaves us in the flow of weak systems. We need something strong to move the upper atmosphere features along and bring in a fresh air mass. That will happen over the weekend with a storm system moving into the East. In the meantime looking at the satellite we have clouds everywhere and breaks in that cloud cover are going to be hard to come by today. Also there are some areas of light rain on the radar scattered around so that will be the outlook for this afternoon and throw in a little bit of fog into the mix. Clouds, patchy fog and a little scattered light rain will be around overnight. Most highs today will be in the 40s north of NYC and mostly upper 40s and lower 50s everywhere else. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s.
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WEATHER RADAR
We might catch a break on Friday with a little dry air coming into the mix so while the day starts cloudy damp and dismal, we may catch some breaks in the cloud cover Friday afternoon and even some periods of sunshine in some places. Highs will be in the low and middle 50s. Some low clouds and patchy fog will likely develop at night but the New Year should come in dry as rain holds off until Saturday.
The first of two lows will be heading east on Saturday. This one comes out of the Southern Plains and moves northeast into Ohio and eventually Western NY. This is going to bring rain here on Saturday and it will be a solid soaking rain at that. It will also be quite mild on Saturday with highs reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s in many locations. Some high temperature records could be threatened.
The first low will move east of Maine Saturday night and the rain should come to an end. However we have a lagging upper trough and the strength of the southern part of that trough will be key to the outcome of our weather Sunday night into Monday morning. A stronger southern feature will allow cold air to come and a wave to strengthen offshore and we see rain changing to snow before it ends. It might even accumulate a coating to a few inches in some places. Even the Weather Prediction Center is picking up on this on today’s forecast.
Except for the GFS model and the Canadian Model, the others have a much weaker southern feature and most times in situations like this, that is the more likely outcome. This would mean that the rain basically shuts off Sunday afternoon and it turns windy cold and drier Sunday night into Monday.
The GFS today and this is new one hot off the presses continues to amplify that southern stream system and a second low develops in the Southeast US and moves northeast Sunday night into Monday morning. It would suggest that we get a shot for snow here into Monday morning. I’m still waiting to see what the other models do with this. Of course another option here is that colder air comes in and overwhelms everything and pushes the low further south and east. I still think at the end of the day this is a miss for us but my mind is a little more open about it today than yesterday. I will be watching the afternoon model runs and reporting it on Patreon.
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