The central coast of Western Mexico is bracing for what could be a category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Patricia which last night had top winds of 65 mph is now almost a category 5 with top winds of 150 mph. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening tonight and Friday as the hurricane is over 88 degree ocean water. Latest satellite loops show that Hurricane Patricia continues to turn more toward the northwest and eventually will be making the turn toward the north and then northeast as a strong upper air trough drops southward and pics up the hurricane. Patricia will move inland as at least a category 4 hurricane sometime Friday night as the National Hurricane Center forecast map below shows. The satellite pics show a very impressive almost perfectly formed textbook eye.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 104.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
We remain very interested in the outcome once Hurricane Patricia moves inland into Mexico because all computer models show the moisture from Patricia moving northeast and into Texas Lousiana and Arkansas with potentially flooding rains. A non tropical low is forecast to develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico and move northeast. With a deep trough forecast to move across the United States there is a good chance we could finally see a soaking rain here later Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The European discussion today discusses this possibility in detail so do check that post out.
Download my weather app and subscribe to my forecasts. The app is free and a subscription is just 99 cents a month for New York New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania and Southern New England.