Weather Models Bring Hurricane Patricia Moisture Here Later Next Week.

Weather models have developed a sense of consistency over the last few days and it is becoming pretty clear that Hurricane Patricia, which could become a Category 5 hurricane tonight, will eventually become a mositure feed into the United States. First it will be in the Western Gulf States early next week and then up into the East where the rain has been lacking for the last few weeks and the near drought conditions have yet to be relieved.

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You can see how the jet stream pattern above seems to be coming together with several disturbances in the flow and it is just a matter of those disturbances phasing together. At the surface low pressure develops in the Western Gulf,. Im guessing this is a non tropical low that develops there and the flow sets up for that low to track northeast.


The surface low tracks to Memphis Tennessee on day 6 and then to the Great Lakes by Day 7. The phasing of energy in the upper air pattern should allow for a really solid area of rain to develop especially if it is enhanced by the moisture of Hurricane Patricia. There is fair agreement among models for this to happen so it will be question now of how the tropical moisture feed from Hurricane Patricia plays itself out over the weekend and the first part of next week. Nothing of consequence happens here through Tuesday.

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Rainfall amounts from the GFS and Canadian weather models are robust especially in areas south and southwest of our area. Rainfall amounts in the Western Gulf States open the door to some serious flooding there if this plays out according to weather models.

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My latest post on Hurricane Patricia is up on the tropics page of the website. Until the middle of next week the biggest change will be the temperatures here as the 70s of the last 3 days are going to be done for quite awhile.