earl gulf of mexico disturbance

Tropical Storm Earl & Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

Tropical Storm Earl & Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

[brid video=”57661″ player=”6390″ title=”Tropical Storm Earl Severe Weather Threat Weekend Forecast”]

Tropical Storm Earl & Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

We are seeing disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico developing this afternoon. This is in response to low pressure trough that extends from the Southeast US to off the west coast of Florida. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are conducive for development over the next several days however it will depend on whether the disturbed weather remains over the open waters of the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. You can see the satellite loop below shows thunderstorms blossoming out this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center rates this a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days.

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Also in the tropics there are several waves moving across the Atlantic. One of those waves will find its way off the southeast coast of the US later next week and we will see how that evolves. The Euro model wants to do something with this but it is far enough down the road that we can start paying attention if and when it gets there.

Tropical Storm Earl is now in the extreme Southwest Gulf of Mexico with the center barely offshore. We are seeing some convection developing with this today however it is going to head inland tonight and bring torrential rains in the mountains of Mexico.

TROPICAL STORM EARL LATEST ADVISORY

...EARL EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of
Veracruz later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before
landfall. An Air Force plane will check Earl in a couple of hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area today and tonight.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


 

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