Typhoon Omais Key To August Pattern
Typhoon Omais Key To August Pattern
A few days ago we noticed (and so did others) that there was a recurving typhoon in the West Pacific that under the right conditions would lead to some longer term pattern shifts across North America. What usually happens is that a recurving typhoon eventually morphs into a deep low in the Gulf of Alaska which drives a trough down into the Eastern United States. The European model was the first to show this and now all the models and ensembles have jumped on board with this idea.
Typhoon Omais HWRF Model Wednesday August 10
Typhoon Omais GFS Model Wednesday August 10
Now remember this is a process and not necessarily a prediction so we need to see how this all plays out over the next week to 10 days. If troughing results in the east this would make things cool and wetter for the second half of the month. Also with troughing in the east, it would be one of the necessary ingredients for a hurricane or tropical storm to track up the east coast. REMEMBER THAT YOU CAN HAVE ALL THIS AND UNLESS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS..NOTHING HAPPENS!
This brings us to today’s European day 10 upper air. I want to show you this because of what it is showing in the upper air structure. If a hurricane or tropical storm is going to move up the east coast, it has been my experience that you need a deep trough to the west. Most any other upper air set up is not conducive to east coast tropical storm threats. This type of jet stream set up is what you need to see. A trough in the Ohio Valley creates a southerly flow aloft along the east coast for a tropical storm or hurricane to ride northward. Now the big variable here is whether there will be a tropical system at all. Think back to Joaquin of last year. The upper air set up was absolutely nothing like this.
Again I’m not predicting anything here. I am merely stating that this is the kind of setup that is required for a serious tropical storm threat. Bear this in mind when you read others that talk about a threat to the east. Ask yourself whether the upper air is supportive. In the end that is the critical question.
Now assuming that nothing happens on the tropical side, the implication of troughing in the east means for a cooler wetter second half of August, assuming all things being equal which they seldom are. This is some food for though going forward.
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