90 Degree Highs Again Slight Chance Late Thunderstorm

Yesterday saw the first 90 degree readings pop yesterday in and around NYC and we are likely to see those numbers there again today along with a few more spots touching or going over 90 degrees for the first time. Temperatures this morning are already in the 70s. We have sunshine everywhere and a west wind blowing so there really isn’t anything to stop the thermometers from heading toward record levels in some areas.

THURSDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES

There are some thunderstorms moving along this morning on the regional radar well to the north. While the frontal boundary is going to shift southward somewhat today It opens the door for a small chance for a late day Thunderstorm in one or two spots. Im not overly impressed by the dynamics for such storms today though the Storm Prediction Center has some of the area in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. I think they should be few and far between.

US SATELLITE

REGIONAL RADAR

Friday will be one last day of very warm temperatures with some sunshine and clouds with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Clouds might hold back the temperatures slightly and there is a greater risk of thunderstorms in the evening and Friday night. A stronger cold front will be pushing through. Weather models are showing that front getting hung up nearby over the weekend and this is going to now complicate the weekend forecast to some degree. Showers are possible over the weekend but I’m thinking Sunday has the higher risk as energy swings out of the Midwest and gets involved with some moisture that develops along the coast.

GFS FORECAST SUNDAY MAY 6, 2018

That Atlantic moisture has its origins from the tropics. If you look at the satellite picture above you can see the clouds east of the Bahamas. A weak low will develop out of this as it moves westward but it is way too early for tropical storm development. There have been 22 tropical storms in the month of May since 1851 and only 4 hurricanes. In recent years we have seen a couple of tropical storms pop up in May but mostly in the latter part of the month. Once the front to the north on Sunday goes by weather conditions improve next week with sunshine and near average temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.