Winter Storm Warnings Eastern Pennsylvania
Central & Northern New Jersey
Hudson Valley NYC Western Long IslandSouthern New England
Radars Revving Up
Much of the Northeast is under a Winter Storm Warning from Southeastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. We are waiting for radars to rev up which they are starting to do now. The storm is heading for just offshore Southern New Jersey and then it will begin to move eastward to 40N 70W. The key to the accumulation forecast going forward will be the accumulation rates we get and the development of heavy snow bands and even some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That will be the peak period from noon until 7pm.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
While the intensity is light you will see either some wet snowflakes or even some rain. It remains very cold aloft and once all the dynamics kick we should see some pretty hefty snowfall rates. This is when the snow accumulates. If you get under one of those bands you will snow hard and put it down quickly.
I left my snow forecast map alone because at this point I’m just going to let it happen. With the storm going east it will mean a colder snowier solution so we could finish more toward the high end of snow amounts then the low end. Long Island remains the toughest part of this forecast and we might consider shifting the 2-5 inch line eastward into Suffolk toward Riverhead. At this point watch the radar and let it snow.
The NAM model above is for 4pm when the snow should be at its maximum intensity. The surface low attempts to redevelop to the east as it all translatest toward the 40N 70W benchmark. After 7pm the bulk of the snow is done and weather conditions improve overnight. Everything remains on course here. Watch the radars blow up in the next few hours.