Wind Advisory Severe Weather Risk As Nicole Remnants Move Northward
Nicole is now a remnant low and it is intereacting with an approaching cold front. The tropical moisture continues to spread out across the east and rain is moving northward. Let’s start with forecast rain amounts which will be on the order of an inch or less along the immediate coast and 1 to perhaps 1.50 inches or so inland. There will be some pockets of 2 inch rainfall amounts given that we have a chance for thunderstorms.
The atmosphere locally is priming up with rising dew points into the middle 60s. Coupled with all the energy aloft and we have severe weather risk for much of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania and points south. All this enegy and tropical air also introduces a 2 percent tornado risk for areas in the marginal risk zone and 5% risk in the slight risk zone further south.
Clouds continue to roll northward and the regional radar shows a rather large area of rain. The track of the surface low up the west side of the Appalachians keeps 2 inch plus rains well to our west. It appears that we will have two rounds of rain to deal with. The first area spreads northward through this afternoon and into early evening.
The second round of rain will be in the form of some showers and thunderstorms during the overnight. At this point we will likely see rain issues along the coast and Wind Advisories have been posted for the coastal counties of New Jersey as well as Long Island. and Coastal Southern and Southeatern New England. Winds will gust over 40 mph in those locations overnight into Saturday morning.
All this tropical air will mean that temperatures today will top in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees in most places. Those temperatures will hold in the 60s overnight until the cold front passes offshore.
The rain should be gone by Saturday daybreak or shortly afterward except for Southeastern New England where the rains could last into mid morning. Then we should see sunshine develop. Initially, there will be leftover warm air around and we have to wait for an upper trough to move through Saturday night. Saturday daytime highs could reach into the 70s.
Saturday night we will see the upper trough move through and another cold front and with that there could be a few passing scattered showers. They should be gone by Sunday morning. Then the cold air moves in and we will see a mix of sun and clouds Sunday with a gusty wind. Highs will just be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Next week will be cold with below normal temperatures all week. It should be dry Monday and Tuesday with sunshine Monday with highs just in the 40s everywhere. Tuesday we will see sunshine giving way to arriving clouds with highs in the 40s. Wednesday we could see a chilly rain move in and we may see some areas well inland have some snow and sleet in the mix at the start if precipitation comes in fast enough into the cold air. We will take a closer look at this after we are done with today and tonight’s weather.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.