Nicole Inland Heading Up Appalachians Rain Wind Friday Into Early Saturday
We have one more nice day to enjoy before we deal with what will be left of Hurricane Nicole which is now inland and heading toward and then up the Appalachians. High pressure is offshore and we will have sunshine taking highs back to the low to mid 60s. We are at the beginning of the process of “priming” the atmosphere in the east for Nicole’s soon to be post tropical low pressure center. The satellite loop this morning shows Nicole over Central Florida and is now down to tropical storm strength.
Clouds will increase tonight as moisture begins to move up the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures will hold in the 50s to low 60s overnight. Then we move on to Friday. Nicole will become post tropical and then heads northeast up the Appalachians. A cold front coming in from the west provides the alley-way for Nicole to move along.
It seems that we will have two rounds of rain and downpours. The first develops Friday morning from south to north and moves through the area during the afternoon and then exiting. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will move through overnight into early Saturday morning so there will likely be a short break in between. The low moves through Central Pennsylvania to Upstate NY and eventually into New England.
Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1 to 2 inches and any thunderstorms in the mix could push that number higher in some places. Other than some localized flash flooding we would think that any widespread flash flood risk will be well west of our area.
Severe weather risk is on the table for later Friday and Friday night. The Storm Prediction Center has pushed up the marginal risk area further north in their forecasts. This means we have the risk for isolated stronger or severe thunderstorms getting into the mix. With the front and the low closing in we will see gusty winds developing Friday night.
Southerly winds will gust to 20 to 30 mph inland and 30 to 40 mph along the coast of New Jersey and Long Island. Those strong winds will shift to Southeast New England early Saturday morning. Then we see winds shifting to the northwest and we will start to see improving weather conditions. Leftover clouds will give way to some sunshine. As for temperatures Saturday there will be leftover warm air with highs in the upper 60s to a few low 70s but from Eastern Pennsylvania westward highs will only be in the 50s. That colder air comes in for Sunday and Monday where highs will probably not get out of the 40s both days.
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