Weekend Forecast Saturday Warmer Better Day Raw Damp Chilly Sunday

Weekend Forecast Saturday Warmer Better Day

Raw Damp Chilly Sunday

It may not be a picture perfect warm up with lots of deep blue sky and sunshine but it will have to do. We are completing the transition over to a warm air mass today and this is the reason why we are dealing with some clouds and the the radars are showing even a few light showers going through but much of that is aloft and it should be out of the way this afternoon. We will see increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on and temperatures will respond by climbing well into the 70s in many inland areas though along the coast the usual problems of wind direction from off the ocean and a sea breeze will keep things in the cooler 60s and eventually the 50s.

US SATELLITE

REGIONAL RADAR

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

Everything is on course for Saturday and the timing of the backdoor cold front remains an issue. From NYC south and west it would appear that the front does not come through until later in the afternoon or early evening in which case temperatures will hit the highs around 2pm and then level off and start falling toward evening and overnight. East and north of NYC timing might mean temperatures peaking before noon and then holding or falling during the afternoon for the Hudson Valley Connecticut and Long Island.

NAM MODEL 3PM SATURDAY APRIL 14, 2018

The NAM model seems the most aggressive with regards to the timing and the southern extent of the cold front coming through from the northeast on Saturday. This would suggest that temperatures north of the front will likely peak before 1pm before leveling off and then falling. South of the front in New Jersey from 195 southward and Southern Pennsylvania southward will be in the 70s to near 80 right until evening before the wind goes to the east. Sunday is going to be rather miserable across most of the area with lots of low clouds, drizzle, fog, light rain, and temperatures in the upper 30s across parts of the Hudson Valley and Northern New Jersey northeast to Long Island and Connecticut and 40s everywhere else. The bulk of any heavy rain will come later Sunday night into Monday with the likelihood of some thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Temperatures will rise again on Monday into the 60s before a cold front passes. We could wind up with a couple of inches of rain so flooding is possible. We will address these issues later today and over the weekend.

If you are on Long Island the weekend forecast is especially problematic so you may want to check my specific Long Island weather post on weatherlongisland.com