Weekend Forecast: A Little Rain Early Sunday Morning

There will be a little rain in the forecast for later tonight into early Sunday morning as a cold front comes through but the emphasis is on the word little. The next cold front is approaching so today we have sunshine giving way to arriving clouds. Temperatures today will not get out of the low to mid 50s.saturday gfs18

The front will pass through Sunday morning. The area of showers will be weakening as it moves east however a few might hold together. It will be barely enough to make a puddle with forecast rainfall amounts under .10 inch in most places.sundayprecip

By midday Sunday (earlier west..a little later east) the clouds will begin to break up and we should go at least partly sunny for the afternoon. Sunday’s highs will be a little higher than Saturday’s until the next cool air push comes in Sunday night and Monday.


Monday and Tuesday look dry as high pressure builds in to the north of us and gradually sets up the onshore flow for what should be some rain here for Wednesday. Some of the overnight models like the European model and the Canadian model seem to treat the remnants of Patricia as more of a tropical system and the trough coming out of the west takes longer to move east. Rain is slower to arrive. I’m not quite sure that is correct as the gfs model has been speeding things up in the other direction. It is going to be interesting to see later today and tonight what happens in the Western Gulf of Mexico. The core circulation seems to be holding together pretty well as it moves across Mexico today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gifThe full gfs model discussion from overnight tackles some the issues regarding the tropical moisture and how much gets up here midweek. I’m still thinking we should wind up with 1 to 2 inches of much needed rain area wide.

On another subject matter we are just days away from the verdict of the Siberian snow cover growth rate indicator and there are rumors JOESTRADAMUS will attempt a winter outlook.  These are just rumors for now.