Weekend Brings Flash Flood & Severe Weather Risk Sunday Into Early Monday

Weekend Brings Flash Flood & Severe Weather Risk Sunday Into Early Monday

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Weekend Brings Flash Flood & Severe Weather Risk Sunday Into Early Monday

We have arrived at the doorstep of the weekend and this is not going to be the best of summer weekends. First off of the two weekend days Saturday will definitely be better than Sunday for sure. Sunday we will see rain and thunderstorms and it appears that rain will overspread the Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England Sunday morning and continue into Sunday night. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk for flash flooding which means there is a 15 to 40 percent chance for flash floods to develop from Northeast Virginia northward into Northwestern New England.

Also Sunday we could see severe weather risk and at least on its initial forecast, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather reaching into Northern New Jersey and Northeastern Pennsylvania and this could wind up being extened a little further north and east as we draw closer. I think we eventually could see the northern border of the slight risk zone furthern north as well. Both flash flood risks as well as severe weather risks will cover a large area of geography in the Eastern US and  across the Gulf States Sunday.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES storm free

WEATHER RADAR

storm free

Meanwhile we have today to talk about and there is an approaching cold front however the front isn’t all that strong. We have very warm and humid conditions ahead of it and not much in the way of clouds around (other than morning fog) so look for sunshine today. Winds will be more from the southeast and that will help hold temperatures down. Highs today will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees but it will be a few degrees cooler at the shore. Late in the day there could be some scattered thunderstorms mostly away from the coast.

Overnight into Saturday morning it will be warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday will be another day of very warm and humid conditions with some sunshine. We could again see some scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 inland and again it will be cooler at the shore with highs at the beaches in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Low pressure will be moving along a frontal boundary that will lie across the Tennessee Valley and then turns northward up the east coast, just inland of the coast. This is going to push a warm front northward Sunday and we could see rain moving up the coast Sunday morning and then becoming more widespread Sunday afternoon and evening. Heavier downpours and thunderstorms will develop along with some severe weather potential in the afternoon and evening from Western New England to the Mid Atlantic.

Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and we will likely see temperatures settle into the 70s or even lower 70s once rain gets underway. Winds from the south southeast will be feeding in moisture. As far as rainfall goes, this map forecast is through Sunday evening and it suggests far less at the coast than inland areas.

Also it should be noted that rains will likely continue into Sunday night at least for a while. 2 to 3 inch plus rains will be commonplace inland in Western New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania northeast to the Catskills and southwest into the Washington DC/Baltimore area. There is room for upside here and there will be some variablity and locally higher amounts with thunderstorms and potential severe weather in the mix.

We should see improving weather conditions Monday with some sunshine returning. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s. Sunday’s system will be long gone but an upper trough moving through could set off another shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening though they should be scattered in nature. Tuesday into Thursday look to be mostly dry, very warm and humid. Wednesday could see highs near 90 with 80s forecast on other days. Shower and thunderstorm risk increases late Thursday and Friday of next week.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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