Week Ahead Weather Forecast NY NJ CT,PA Colder Thanksgiving Week

Week Ahead Weather Forecast NY NJ CT

Skies tonight will be clear and the weather will be relatively calm as winds have dropped off. The satellite loop shows the storm in Eastern Canada has moved away to the northeast. There isn’t too much happening with regards to clouds for the overnight. Cold spots will probably drop into the 30s while warmer urban areas will bottom in the 40s. No important precipitation is showing up on the radar tonight.

We will begin the week with a nice mild day for Monday with sunshine and mild temperatures with highs reaching into the 60s. However even though we are in a strong ridge position in the east it is not going to be able to get overly mild this time around as there is a big surface high to the north that will be building in and that is going to keep temperatures in check on Tuesday.

monday tuesday

Winds will turn northeast and low level cool air will be here on Tuesday. Many areas will be struggling to get above 50. As far as sky conditions are concerned, it looks as if there should be a fair amount of sun for Tuesday. Low clouds and the onshore flow will probably not really establish itself until Tuesday night so Wednesday we will see lots of clouds with temperatures in the 50s to near 60. Then here comes the next cold front and that should probably produce showers when the front comes through on Thursday with temperatures in the 60s.



The gfs is fairly generous with the rainfall producing 1 inch plus rainfalls. Since most areas continue to run deficits of 8 to 10 inches this will be most welcome. The problem with being in a dry pattern is that when you produce near normal rainfall over a month’s time you don’t cut into that deficit which was created over a 6 month span of generally below normal rainfall. At least we seem to being seeing widespread rainevents now on a once a week basis verses once a month.

gfs102The front is forecast to move offshore Thursday evening and there is no sign of the front stalling so Friday and Saturday look dry and colder with temperatures back to normal. This front will be the first of several fronts bringing progressively colder air with each frontal passage. The new GFS 18z run has the next front approaching on Sunday with a little wave on it which will mean showers followed by that next colder shot to start off Thanksgiving week.


The air behind Sunday’s front looks to be the coldest air mass of the fall so far and that means temperatures start off Thanksgiving week with below normal temperatures. The air mass is as cold as the one we saw in mid October so if I had to guess temperatures at this point they will be about 5 degrees or more below normal on average.


With regards to the long range, my latest JOESTRADAMUS post with video analysis explains today’s weather forecast model runs and what they mean going forward.