JOESTRADAMUS: GFS Weather Forecast Model Next 2 Weeks
The gfs weather forecast model continues on a roll and I think it is pretty safe to say at this point that we are going the see a pattern change process get underway beginning next weekend. How this plays out is probably where there will be a series of weather systems moving through which each air mass turning progressively colder. Now bear in mind that this time of year the normal highs are still in the low to mid 50s so if you are looking for real winter temperatures here you will be sorely disappointed. I sometimes wonder what some peoples expectations are given it is still mid November and we are in a month where more often than not you don’t see a flake of snow let alone an accumulating snow. But no matter the model run today was extremely interesting in my view.
The other point that I want to make and I try to make it strongly in my video analysis below is that while I can see the colder weather pattern emerging, a stormier pattern is a little more difficult to see. We could turn colder than normal but it doesn’t mean it will be stormier than normal. That is a tougher nut to crack because you really need to see things in the shorter range to get a better feel for storms. Looking out 10 days there are just simply too many variables.
The European model idea is similar in theme though the details are a little different. It has the first weather system through on Sunday, There are several ways this could go beyond the 7 day period. There is a weather system moving into the southwest. The northern jet is pretty busy with a cold air flow into Canada.
The European at 240 looks like it could be setting up for a storm to come out of the southwest and head for the Great Lakes beyond the 10 day period. Again I’m focused at this point on the overall pattern look and not necessarily the super specific details. Ridges on either side building across the top and the splitting of the vortex over the poles appears to be happening and per the gfs at least it stays that way into early December.
The Canadian model on the other hand wants to bring through a quick shot of cold air and then set up the trough out in the west again and rebuild the ridge in the east.
The Canadian does not have as much ridging building across the top from the east like the GFS which is the coldest of the 3 models and this Canadian is the warmest. The question on the Canadian is what happens beyond this period. Does the northern stream become dominant beyond this period like the GFS has and the European implies? I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in the Canadian as it has been fairly unreliable in the longer range for awhile now.
As many of you have seen over the last number of months I love fishing and I think it is important that state conservation efforts should be focused on keeping fishing hatcheries open and running. They keep our rivers stocked with fish at a low cost, it helps the tourism industry, the sportsmen and women love it as they can fish at home (we play catch and release) and it helps keep a healthy wildlife ecosystem. Please tell the governor of Connecticut that we need to keep the hatcheries open on Connecticut rivers. Thank you. I don’t do this often so you know it must be important if I put something like this up. Just click on the pic to access the petition