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Week Ahead Weather Cold Returns
Next Weekend’s Weather Possibility
The week ahead weather looks like a mess in the upper air but it actually translates fairly easily for the day to day outlook. We will be trending colder all week long and the second half of the week will be colder than the first half. We will still have milder air leftover from Sunday’s system until a weak cold front passes. Then as the week passes a series of a cold fronts will bring in colder shots of air. Each shot should arrive drive with the odd chance for snow showers in some places as these systems and upper troughs pass through.
While the pattern is loaded with energy coming into the Eastern US there is literally too much energy running around. Northern and more southern stream short waves remains separated and the timing of north and south phasing or semi phasing remains way off. We see the result of this mess Tuesday night into Wednesday.
There is plenty of energy around for a wave to develop off the Southeast coast but the over abundance of short waves in the northern stream suppress this system to the south. The one stand out system in all of this is system #6 which is coming into the west this week with rain and snow. That is the system that creates a possibility for a storm in the East next weekend.
Jumping ahead to the jet stream pattern next weekend we can see puzzle pieces attempting to come together. The upper pattern is more amplified (stronger highs and lows) Trough 5 in the Atlantic and Trough 6 in the Pacific are very strong. As a result high pressure ridges 3 & 4 are also very strong which leaves system 1 (our southern stream energy) and system 2 (northern stream energy. The question mark is the coastal low development. Pieces 1 & 2 at this point are separate. The question is do they stay separate. If they do then our developing storm will move more east northeast as the European model today suggests.
However if the timing allows for more “phasing” of the two then question mark storm moves more to the northeast. If the timing of the two shortwaves is such where the phasing occurs further west, then coastal storm becomes an inland runner which would mean snow over to rain. These are battles that weather models fight all the time in the long range and there is no way to know now or anytime soon how this all plays out. In the meantime it is a trend to colder weather all next week with some sunshine for a change. We watch and wait.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
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