Weather Models Trending South

Weather Models Trending South
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Weather Models Trending South

Rain Central NJ Long Island Southward

Sunday Showers Possible

With the exception of the incredibly robust NAM model which has a tucked low just offshore and rain just about everywhere, both the European weather model and the GFS weather model say otherwise. Those two models continue to hold to the idea that Saturday’s coastal low will be further south and east. This has been the recent trend with weather systems. Should this be the case rain north of New York City and Long Island will be very light if any at all, while it will be steadier to the south. But even in southern areas the amount of rain would be limited.

Weather Models Trending South

NAM MODEL SATURDAY EVENING

nam60 Weather Models Trending South

Weather Models Trending South

NAM MODEL SUNDAY MORNING

nam72 Weather Models Trending South

Today’s NAM model run remains aggressive with rain but now it stands pretty much alone on this idea. Rainfall amounts out of this model would be in the 1 to 2 inch range and would basically wash out Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Im shying away from the NAM aggressive idea. Firstly it is not even supported by the Canadian RGEM model GFS model or the European Model.

Weather Models Trending South RGEM MODEL SATURDAY MORNING

rgem48 Weather Models Trending South

Weather Models Trending South

GFS MODEL SATURDAY MORNING

gfs48 Weather Models Trending South

Judging from this idea, and the fact that the upper support isn’t exactly impressive, i would lean away from the NAM model idea. This probably means rain only slowly spreads northward through Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania Saturday morning. It won’t make it to Northern New Jersey, Long Island, Southeast NY, and Southern New England until later Saturday afternoon. With respect to amounts, we are looking at under a quarter of an inch in most places except southern NJ and Southeastern Pennsylvania which are looking at a quarter to a half inch or so.

With regards to coastal flooding Saturday and Saturday night, tides are forecast to average 2 to perhaps 3 feet above normal which means that there will be minor coastal flooding in most areas and possibly some moderate coastal flooding in a few areas. The ocean low is combining with a full moon this weekend however the highest spring tides of the season occurred 2 weeks ago with the new moon.

gfs84 Weather Models Trending South

Sunday we will see changeable skies with clouds and some in and out sun. The upper air trough will be triggering off some showers Sunday afternoon and evening. The best chances for these showers would be away from the coast, though showers even along coastal areas cannot be ruled out.

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