Weather Models Suppress Snow Threats
Weather Models Suppress Snow Threats
Last night’s run of weather models showed bullish Canadian and European weather models straddling snow up along the coast for late Thursday into Friday. However the GFS weather model continued to suppress everything to the south. The key difference in the models is how they handle the arriving cold air. The GFS overwhelms so much cold air into the Eastern US that there was no room for anything to happen. A wave will develop and pass well offshore with no issues. The other two models held back some of the cold air which allows more room for something to move up the coast.
The map above is the overnight Canadian weather model for Friday morning. It and the European held some of the cold air back and waited for the wave to go by and bringing in the core of the cold air mass from Canada. The new Canadian is leaning in the direction of the very consistent GFS model which has the suppressed look.
The GFS model is the most suppressed of all with cold air just pushing everything south and east with no consequence.
Usually but not always the GFS overdoes the cold air. The European model will begin shortly and I ‘m expecting it to cave to the GFS model meaning it will come around to the more suppressed look. If that is the case then its cold and dry once the rain from Tuesday is done.
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