Weather Models Strong Trough Approaching

WEATHER MODELS STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

COOL WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

This weekend will feature a strong trough developing in the Eastern United States. Actually we have not seen a system like this in awhile. It may open the door for some rain and thunderstorms here on Sunday. However at least with respect to the weekend Saturday looks okay with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 70s. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days.

Weather Models Strong Trough Approaching Sunday NIght Upper Air

gfs108

The strength of the trough is unusual for this time of year and may be a sign of a longer term change in the overall pattern across North America. The decreasing el nino influence seems to be allowing development of stronger vortex scenarios across Southern Canada. This could at least mean more frequent cold fronts and chances for rain. However we will have to also see whether the tendency for ridges to develop in the east decrease over time. This is something we will have to watch closely.

Meanwhile with regards to Sunday the trough is impressive with a strong southerly flow ahead of it into the east. This could open up a good mositure flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.

Weather Models Strong Trough Approaching GFS Surface Map Sunday Evening

gfs102

As we have seen over and over again over the last number of months, weather systems have been overdone by models with regards to rainfall production. Reality has proven to show much less than forecast. We will be cautious on how much rain falls from this until that trend of underperformance is broken.

Weather Models Strong Trough Approaching GFS RAINFALL FORECAST 

Weather Models Strong Trough Approaching

The gfs model is showing about an inch or so of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. We will have to see how model trends develop before we jump totally on board with this idea.
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